The 2024 election cycle took a bizarre turn with the revelation that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had a brain worm enter and eat part of his brain. Despite this shocking revelation, Kennedy claims to have recovered and even challenged Donald Trump and Joe Biden to a debate, saying he could eat “5 more brain worms and still beat” them. Surprisingly, Kennedy is polling better than any independent candidate since Ross Perot in 1996, indicating that he may have a real shot at making the fall debates against the major party nominees.
A CNN/SSRS poll showed that Biden trailed Trump by 6 points in a one-on-one match-up, but when Kennedy, Jill Stein, and Cornel West were included, Trump’s lead increased to 9 points. Kennedy received 16% in this survey, a level of support not seen for third-party candidates like Ralph Nader in 2000 or Gary Johnson in 2016. This 16% is significant because the polling threshold for candidates to participate in the fall debates is 15%, which Kennedy seems to be meeting in multiple polls.
While Kennedy has a decent level of support in the polls, he remains largely unknown to many voters. An NBC News poll found that 39% of voters had a neutral or negative opinion of Kennedy, with only 32% having a positive opinion. Despite his strong showing in the polls, many voters are not aware of Kennedy’s controversial views on vaccines and Covid-19, raising questions about his platform and vulnerability to attack ads from opponents.
Recent polling has shown that Kennedy voters tend to prefer Trump over Biden, although not uniformly. In a two-way matchup without third-party candidates, Trump leads Biden by low double-digits among Kennedy supporters. This support could make a difference in a close election, prompting both Biden and Trump to take notice and potentially target Kennedy in their campaign strategies.
Kennedy’s candidacy poses a unique challenge for both major party nominees in the 2024 election. While he has shown strong polling numbers and potential for making the fall debates, his lack of defined platform and vulnerability to attack ads could impact his viability as a candidate. It remains to be seen how Kennedy’s campaign will evolve and whether he will be able to maintain his current level of support in the upcoming months leading to the election.
