Donald Trump has tentatively won the 2024 presidential election, with projections from both Fox News and Decision Desk HQ indicating victory in Pennsylvania, which would secure his path to victory over Vice President Kamala Harris. Notably, Trump would also be on track to win the popular vote, a feat that no Republican candidate has achieved in over 20 years. The last time a Republican won the popular vote was President George W. Bush’s re-election in 2004, when he defeated Democratic challenger John Kerry by around three million votes while also securing 286 Electoral College votes. Despite subsequent elections where Democrats won the popular vote, Trump’s potential 2024 victory marks a significant shift.
Former President Donald Trump’s potential win in the 2024 election would not only secure the Electoral College but also the popular vote, a rarity for Republican candidates in recent history. President Bush’s 2004 popular vote win was an outlier in his electoral victories, as previous presidents like Bill Clinton won the popular vote in each of their election bids. President George H.W. Bush also claimed victory in the popular vote in 1988 against Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis, with a substantial margin of nearly eight million votes. These historical references underscore the significance of Trump’s potential popular vote win in 2024, given the changing dynamics of recent elections.
As of the early hours of November 6, Donald Trump held a lead of about 4.9 million votes over Vice President Kamala Harris in the popular vote count. With outstanding votes in the remaining states, it appears increasingly unlikely, if not impossible, for Harris to overtake Trump in the popular vote, even if she were to secure all remaining votes. This result would solidify Trump’s lead in both the Electoral College and the popular vote, making his potential victory in the 2024 election a notable achievement for the Republican Party. The implications of Trump’s victory in both categories could have a significant impact on the political landscape going forward.
In comparison, the 2020 presidential election saw President Joe Biden securing victory in the popular vote by about seven million votes, amassing the most-ever votes by a presidential candidate. Despite Trump also amassing a high number of votes, his frustration stemmed from not winning the election, as Biden’s victory in both the popular vote and the Electoral College sealed his path to the presidency. The contrast between the outcomes of the 2020 and potential 2024 elections highlights the shifting patterns of voter preferences and political dynamics in the United States, as candidates navigate the complexities of appealing to a diverse electorate.
The lead secured by Donald Trump in the popular vote count as of November 6 reflects a significant shift in voter sentiment since the 2020 election, where President Joe Biden emerged victorious with a substantial margin. Trump’s potential ability to win both the Electoral College and the popular vote in 2024 signals a resurgence in support for the Republican Party, challenging conventional wisdom and historical trends. As the final votes are tallied and results are confirmed, the implications of Trump’s victory on the political landscape and future elections will undoubtedly be analyzed and debated by experts and pundits.
Overall, the potential victory of Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, including both the Electoral College and the popular vote, marks a significant milestone for the Republican Party and signals a shift in voter preferences since the 2020 election. With projections indicating Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the popular vote count, the implications of this outcome on future elections and political strategies will be closely scrutinized. As the final results are confirmed, the impact of Trump’s victory on the broader political landscape will become clearer, shaping the discourse around party dynamics and electoral trends in the United States.
